Royals (Hernandez, 6-2,3.90) vs Indians (Allen, 1-7,7.11)

The Royals rookie Carlos Hernandez, 10 starts into his career as a starter, has had a successful season. He can be uneven (witness is last short and ugly start) but has more often than not delivered quality outings. He is 3-0 with a 2.60 ERA on the road and has lots of support, with a team record of 7-3. Logan Allen has been far less dependable, with poor outweighing good starts quite significantly. He has allowed 11 runs in 15+ innings in his last three starts, and has struggled at home, going 1-5. He is terrible vs. left-handed batting. The Indians are a very poor 2-9 with him on the mound.

The Royals are hitting in the top 15% of the league and have been particularly tough vs. lefties. Their bullpen has been better than average in the last 7 games. The Indians are not a particularly good home team, and have been spinning their wheels on offense of late. Their bullpen, as usual, is quite solid lately.

I like the Royals very much in this situation. The odds are basically a pick’um, but you might find KC a slight underdog. KC to win. Snap this one up before the books come to their senses.