7-4 Florida State invades Winston-Salem on Tuesday to take on 11-3 Wake Forest. The hosts have lost two in a row, but both defeats were on the road by single digits. FSU has won its last two games, including a narrow 83-81 win at NC State on New Year’s Day.

Four of FSU’s last six games have been decided by three points or less. So they’re getting used to nail biters. Of the four close calls, the Seminoles have won two and lost two. They are 1-5 ATS in the last six games and their number of points scored and allowed has risen during this time. I think that this game will be a little more low-scoring.

Now, predicting a low-scoring game may seem perplexing to some as Wake is coming off a 94-82 loss to Miami. But that was a road game. At home, the Demon Deacons are 8-0 and allowing only 64.1 points per contest. When they play host, opponents are shooting just 38.5% for the year.

Miami shot better than 60% against Wake Forest on Saturday. Also, the Demon Deacons shot 54% themselves. Expect those percentages to come way down here. It’s rare to see both teams shoot that well in a game. Similarly, Florida State had to deal with a 32-point effort from NC State’s Dereon Seabron in its last game. It’s highly unlikely that anyone on Wake Forest is going to turn in that kind of singular effort tonight.

FSU just missed out on covering its last time out. They are 7-2 Under the previous nine times they’ve been off an ATS loss. Play on UNDER