After Game 1 easily stayed Under, Game 2 finished right at the number and your result on the O/U may vary. Miami scored 115 in both games while Atlanta increased its offense from 91 to 105 points in Game 2.

Expect the Hawks to increase their number of points scored again here in Game 3. I’m confident in that assessment because they’re now back home, for the first time since scoring 132 in the play-in tournament against Charlotte. For the season, Atlanta is averaging 117 points/game at State Farm Arena.

That’s the second highest home average in the league, trailing only Memphis. Also, the Hawks finished the regular season tops in the NBA in number of points scored per possession. Bottom line - this team can score and will tonight.

The problem for the Hawks comes on the defensive end. They give up 112.2 points/game and have the lowest defensive efficiency rating of any team in the playoffs. Miami’s Jimmy Butler scored 45 points in Game 2. He probably won’t match that number here, but the Heat can easily score 115 as a team again.

Six of the Heat’s last eight road games have gone Over. Atlanta is shooting below 30% from three in the series and that number is going to go up tonight. The Hawks have averaged 124.5 points in their last five home games. Take the OVER.