Golden State missed out on its chance to sweep Denver, losing Sunday by a score of 126-121. But the good news is that no team in NBA history has ever blown a 3-0 series lead (Warriors infamously blew a 3-1 series lead in the 2016 NBA Finals) and now they are back home for Game 5 and heavily favored to close out the series.

The first four games have all gone Over. The Warriors and Nuggets have combined to average 245.4 points with every game seeing 230 or more points scored. Game 4 was the highest scoring one so far.

The total for Game 5 has been set a little higher than the previous games. What I don’t think will happen Wednesday is Denver shooting 56.5 percent again like they did at home in Game 4. The last two games have seen both teams shoot better than 50 percent. I don’t see that happening again either.

Golden State is an elite defensive team at home where they give up an average of just 103.3 points per game. The Under is still 25-17 in Warriors’ home games this season. Denver averaged only 106.5 points in the first two games here.

So, with their season still on the line, it’s up to Denver defensively. They’ve yet to hold Golden State to less than 118 points, but if they can keep them closer to 111 (what the Nuggets are allowing per game, for the year), then we’ve got a great shot at this one going Under.