Do or die for the Mavericks tonight as it’s win or go home (rather, stay home). They face a seemingly insurmountable 0-3 series hole, something no team in NBA history has ever climbed out from. So how should you play Game 4?

I like the Under. The Under is 33-14-1 in all Mavs’ home games this year and it did cash in Game 3 where only 209 total points were scored. While I do think Dallas is going to score more tonight than they did Sunday, let’s also not forget they are giving up just 101.1 points per game at home this season. That’s tops in the NBA. So don’t rule them out yet.

The Under is 4-0 the last four times Dallas has been favored. The Under is also 4-0 the last four times Golden State has been an underdog.

The Warriors have shot exceptionally well in this series. But Game 3 (46.9%) saw a steep decline from the first two games where they shot 56.1% at home. For tonight, expect shooting along the lines of Game 3, or probably an even lower percentage.

Luka Doncic has put up 40 or more points each of the last two games. Only Hakeem Olajuwon and LeBron James have ever gone three straight Conference Finals games with 40+. So Doncic should cool off. We should also see fewer free throw attempts than we did in Game 3. There were 59 FT attempted Sunday, up from 54 and 37 in the first two games.