I’m expecting this to be a defensive battle in the East Regional between 7-seed Michigan State and 3-seed Kansas State.
The lower seeded team is actually the favorite here, which I’m not sure I agree with. But Under seems like the best course of action here considering Michigan State plays at a very slow pace (303rd in adjusted tempo) and hasn’t been hitting its threes recently (2 of 17 vs. Marquette).
Kansas State probably can’t count on shooting 67% from two-point range either, which is what they’ve done in their first two tournament games. Against Marquette, Michigan State allowed only nine made field goals from inside the arc!
Unders have been the way to go so far in the NCAA Tournament. Through the first two rounds (and play-in games), the Under is hitting at a 67% rate (35-17).
Kansas State has been one of the few exceptions to the Under rule as both of their Tourney games so far have stayed Under. But they shot poorly from three against Kentucky in the second round and my guess is that Tom Izzo is going to come up with a way to slow down Markquis Nowell in this game. 10*