UConn is a heavy favorite to cut down the nets Monday. They may very well end up winning, but this is too many points to lay to a very good San Diego State. It’s a bigger number than the UConn-Miami game and I have San Diego State rated higher than Miami.
NCAA Title Game favorites of eight points or higher are just 2-5 ATS since 1970. We’re not quite there yet, but it’s something that I wanted to note.
Now I’m fully aware that UConn has won its five previous Tournament games by an average 20.6 points/game while beating the spread by more than 15 points per game. But we also need to salute what San Diego State has done. The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in the Tournament and have won nine games in a row overall.
Both teams play outstanding defense and neither plays particularly fast. While the respective Final Four opponents looked to speed them up, no one is looking to play fast here. UConn is 214th in adjusted tempo while San Diego State is 270th.
Don’t consider this an endorsement of the Under, but I certainly don’t expect this to be a high-scoring game. Points will be at a premium, thus taking the underdog is the way to go here. San Diego State has only ONE double digit loss all year and it was to Arizona back in November. 10*