The Pirates put up a mountain of runs in Colorado in their last series. They came back to earth on Thursday, still winning, but scoring just four runs. The Pirates have been a surprise team this season, hitting very well. The Reds have struggled, but usually win when Ashcraft is pitching. He is 2-0, with an ERA of 1.42. Other than too many walks, he has been very strong to date. Nothing wrong with Keller's season either. While not as overpowering as his opponent, he has been steady, pitching for good length. You can't blame the bullpen for all the runs the Reds have given up recently. They've been very good, with a 2.70 ERA last five games. They have a step on the Pirates pen over the same period, who have been just average.

The Pirates are favored, but i am not convinced that their success will last. It has been a few days since they faced a tough pitcher and the line for Friday is over-valued in their favor. Take the Reds to bounce back; the dog winning on the road.