The Miami Heat have drastically overperformed in this first round playoff series, especially at the offensive end of the floor. They’ve averaged 123 points through the first four games and you can’t necessarily blame that all on Milwaukee being without Giannis Antetokounmpo as he returned for Game 4 and the Heat scored 119, led by a sensational performance from Jimmy Butler, who had 56 points by himself.
This is only the fourth time since 1984 that an 8-seed holds a 3-1 series lead over a 1-seed.
Something else to keep in mind - the Heat were the lowest scoring team in the NBA during the regular season at 109.5 points/game.
Furthermore, the Heat were also #2 in points allowed (109.8 per game). What has happened in this series is truly head-scratching to say the least.
So I will try the Under yet again. On the road, it’s more likely that Miami’s shooting will regress (than at home). Remember that both Herro and Oladipo are out. 10*