I had the Over in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals last night and there was certainly no shortage of scoring there. But for tonight’s Game 1 of the East Conference Finals (between Miami and Boston), I’m anticipating a much different kind of game.

Now it was mostly Overs for both of these teams in the first round of the playoffs. But then the scoring really started to slow down in the respective second round matchups. The Heat-Knicks series was really played at a “snail’s pace” and never saw more than 216 total points scored in any game. Four of the six games finished at 210 or less with the close-out game being the “low-water mark” at 188.

The Celtics really put the clamps down on the Sixers over the final two games of that series, holding them to 86 and 88 points. In three of Boston’s four second round wins, they allowed less than 90 points!

I can’t see the Celtics shooting as well as they did when I cashed them in Game 7 vs. Philadelphia. Jayson Tatum scored a record 51 points and, as a team, the Celtics shot 45% from three.

The Under is 27-13 the last three seasons when Boston is playing on exactly two days’ rest. Their last five games have averaged only 209.2 points. The last five Heat games have averaged just 204.0 points. Take the Under. 10*