Might as well start by pointing out that teams who lose Game 1 at home are 21-1 straight up and 20-2 ATS in Game 2 going back to 2019. Boston fits that profile tonight, so I’ll be laying the points.
The Celtics were in this exact same situation in the last round. They dropped Game 1 to Philadelphia, 119-115 as a 10.5-point favorite. They immediately bounced back, winning Game 2 121-87, laying a similar number.
The trend mentioned above is a perfect 7-0 SU this season, five of those wins coming by 14 points or greater.
I can’t see Miami shooting 51% from three again nor do I see them shooting 54% overall from the field.
The Heat have “stolen” Game 1 on the road in all three series this postseason. But they are 0-2 thus far in Game 2’s, losing at Milwaukee by 16 and New York by 6. The Celtics are 20-10 SU off a loss and should win big tonight. 10*