A pair of 4-6 (their L10 games) teams meet up for the tie-breaker when the White Sox' RH Giolito squares off with Cards' lefty Steve Matz. Giolito has been a bright spot in the Sox' rotation, consistently delivering 6 or more innings on average. He had an ERA of 2.32 in June, and held the Jays to just 4 hits over 6 innings his last time out. Matz is a different story. He has been used in long relief with good success (1.64 ERA in June) after struggling as a starter this year, although he gave up a pair of runs in 2+ innings in his last appearance. As a starter, he was hit very hard, especially in the first inning (10+ ERA). He has also struggled in away games. I don't expect many innings from Matz today and there-in lies the problem. In spite of their strong relief effort yesterday, the Cards' pen has struggled on average, with an ugly 7.71 ERA over their last ten games. not that the Sox relievers are great, but Giolito should give them respectable length, seeing limited Chicago bullpen time.

Statistically St. Louis has the better offense, but the Sox have been hitting left-handed pitchers very well in their last ten games. Look for them to take a lead early and hold it for the win today.