T.M. Selection: Duquesne.

I'm expecting a "closer than most expect" battle here between these teams. Yes, St Louis has the better record and is at home and having a strong season. However, the Dukes are off a home loss to a strong VCU team and are on a perfect 3-0 run in games when coming off a loss. Also, the road struggles of Duquesne SU hide the fact that all their conference road defeats have been tight losses. All but one of them were by less than 7 points. Yes, the biggest margin of any A-10 road loss for the Dukes was 7 points. In the other 5 road losses the average margin was only 3.6 points and all 5 were decided by 6 or less points! St Louis has lost 6 of 11 games. The Billikens last 9 games have featured only 2 wins by more than 2 points! The Billikens had a chance to move past Dayton in the standing but lost to the Flyers earlier this week and that lets the air out of the balloon for this St Louis team. They are now essentially locked into their position in the standings and simply are thinking ahead to conference tournament time. Grab the big points here as this one likely comes down to the final possession!

T.M. Prediction: 70-68 Duquesne.