I'm not going to overthink this by overlooking how good Justin Verlander has been. The Houston Astros are 10-1 in the last 11 starts made by Justin Verlander, with nine of those wins coming by at least two runs or more. Verlander is pitching as well as he ever has with a 9-1 record and a 1.26 ERA in his last 10 starts. The Astros have also won Verlanders' last three home starts by a combined score of 21-3.
Texas has lost the last eight starts made by Glenn Otto, and in Otto's career, Texas is 0-4 when he starts against the Astros, and he has a 5.30 ERA in those starts.