We have a low total here due to winds projected blowing in from left-centerfield in Wrigley Field, but I still expect no less than nine runs scored between these teams. Cubs starter Justin Steele is 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA in five career starts against the Reds, and Hunter Greene has a 5.49 ERA in eight road starts.
These two starters did face each other in Cincinnati on May 26, in a game that resulted in a 20-5 Reds win. The score will be lower this time but not as low as the total is set for.
Both teams have bullpens that rank in the bottom five regarding ERA and home runs allowed. This was on display last night, as eight runs were scored in the final four innings.
Cincinnati has combined for at least eight runs with their opponents in 14 of their last 15 games, and the Cubs have combined for at least eight runs with the opposition in seven of their last eight. I will take the over.