Bowling Green showed great signs of potential against Penn State and Texas A&M, but their defense has shown signs of concern against the run in their 30-27 loss to Old Dominion and was not impressive in a win over Akron last week.

NIU is 16th in the nation in rushing yards per game, and Bowling is 119th in rushing yards allowed per rush attempt.

I believe the wrong team is favored here. Bowling Green has dropped its last five games against the spread as a home favorite of 3.5 points or less, and NIU is 5-0-1 in their last six road games as a dog of 3.5 points or less.

2.5% play on NIU