Ball State has been an over machine this year, with only one of their nine games falling below the total. Buffalo has played five straight games to the over, allowing 30+ in four of their last five games and scoring 30+ in three of their last four.

Both teams have struggled with giving up big plays. Buffalo is 81st in the nation defensively in yards per play allowed, and Ball State is dead last (134th).

Take the Over 3% play.