Sometimes as the week goes along my thoughts on a game change and we have that here.

The Bengals are on a roll and the Browns offense struggled last week against the Texans. Watson does however have a game under his belt now, and the Cleveland defense has looked in the last two games.
Cincinnati has great momentum and on a quick glance looks like the play here, but with a deeper glance, they are getting too many points.
Not only did Cleveland dominate the Bengals back on Halloween, but Cleveland has also rolled off five straight wins over Cincinnati and Joe Burrow is 0-4 against the Browns. Also, I came across a trend I cannot ignore. Teams in Cincys spot who are at least a 6-point favorite and now on double revenge against a divisional opponent after coming off a nondivisional game are on a 1-18 ATS run. I like Cleveland here anywhere down to +4.