I understand Liberty did not finish strong and lost head coach Hugh Freeze to Auburn, but I don't trust Toledo as the favorite. Toledo head coach Jason Candle is 1-4 straight up in bowl games, with the lone win coming in his first appearance when filling in after getting the job in a season led by Matt Campbell, who left for Iowa State.
Liberty had a strong season before dropping their last three games and inexplicably losing the finale to New Mexico State 49-14. The Flames don't want to go out like that. I see Liberty keeping this game within three if not getting the outright upset.