Yes Houston has one of the best pitchers in MLB on the mound, which is why they are heavy road favorites. But overachieving Houston is regressing to the mean having lost five straight including the previous start by Dallas Keuchel.

Home underdogs with a starting pitcher averaging five or more strikeouts per start and stranding 6.9 or fewer runners per game is 303-243 +109.5. Going with a team averaging .35 or fewer stolen bases per game versus an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or less in his last three starts is +125.8 units, though admittedly this year it has not been profitable. Still an angle that has won that much long-term is sensational.