In week 1, fade team that are overvalued because they played better as last season went on is a stunning 23-7 in the history of my database, for a 46.4 ROI. Of course Caleb Williams brings new buzz and hope to Chicago, much like Justin Fields. My decades of betting said high expectation being substantially better than a track record indicates is the top prerequisite to being grossly overvalued.

Road underdogs in week 1 when the team we are fading is off a better season that is 77-43-3 for 64.2 percent.