Texas is a decent 3-1 the last four, while Detroit is 1-5 their last six -5.2 units. Go against a starting pitcher who gives up .5 or fewer home runs per start, after a game in which the bullpen gave up four or more earned runs 934-842, +104.6 units.

Road team is 6-1 in Colby Lewis starts. Justin Verlander has been drilled for 10 earned runs in his last two starts, a combined 12 innings. Road team is 6-4 in his starts. In eight starts, Justin Verlander has a WHIP of 1.424. That is not bad, but it is not exactly worthy of being such a huge chalk.

Rangers are 36-16 in their last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Detroit is 2-7 since last year with Verlander to teams with a losing record. Texas is 13-7 in the series.