In my metrics, I have given systems a little less weight in recent years, though they are still extremely valuable. This one is a favorite most importantly because it continues to win. However it is also very consistent with my findings over the decades under when teams and pitchers become over and undervalued.

Going against home favorites of 150 or more with a starting pitcher who gave up two or fewer runs in each of his last two outings against starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or higher last five starts is +122.9 units including 8-5, +8.7 units this season.

Plus look at these jaw-dropping splits on Miles Mikolas. In four home starts his ERA is 13.73 with a .434 OBP against. Yet he is completely different on the road where in five starts it is 3.34 and .293. Guess who else is better on the road than at home? Yep Roenes Elias has a 3.64 road ERA, but now he is at home where it is 4.50.

Better yet, Elias had a day ERA of 2.23 and .250 OBP against. But he pitches at night where his ERA is 4.85 and a pitiful .341 OBP against.