The Packers have covered 12 of the last 17 meetings with the Bears, but the Bears finished last season on a 9-2 ATS run and Chicago won 7 games by 4 pts or less.
I don't see them getting lucky and all of those breaks again this year.

The Packers have made some improvements on their defense and coordinator Mike Pettine may have the best defensive team they've seen in Green Bay for a while. Za'Darius Smith was brought in to spark the pass rush, and the secondary has some playmakers. Look for Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers to surprise some people this year. I'm taking the Packers plus the pts to open the year on Thursday night.