These teams are similar to one another in a lot of ways. Both run the ball a lot, which will limit overall possessions and the amount of points they can score. Still, I don't like the total in this game, and instead I'm inclined to take Kansas State. Kansas State will usually not beat themselves and will beat you on the ground, with special teams and on defense. They allow just 21.5 points per game (best since 2003) and they have the third-best third-down defense in school history (25.6%).

This feels like we have a major edge so getting the points is hard to pass up. Plus, Kansas State is 6-2 ATS as a dog this season.
HC Chris Klieman knows who to prepare for option teams and I like Kansas St to get the win here.