This looks like a rebuilding year for the Nittany Lions as Shrewsberry gets his system into place, and their best win of the season is against KenPom No. 133 Oregon State. After a down 2020-21 campaign, this looks more like the hard-nose Spartans teams we are used to seeing under Izzo, and Michigan State has already proven it can beat much better teams than Penn State thanks to a lockdown defense.

Michigan State is back among the elite defensive teams in college basketball, ranking fourth in KenPom efficiency and 13th nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed. It's hard to see this Penn State roster having enough firepower to compete in this one.

This is a battle-tested Spartans team already with three wins over top 40 opponents, and their only losses are to national title contenders Kansas and Baylor. Penn State has already been manhandled by a good Big Ten opponent in Ohio State, and things will get even worse for the Nittany Lions on Saturday in a tough road environment against a legitimate top 20 team.

Michigan State should be up by 8 or more at half and cruise to a big win in he 2nd half.