Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid boast a 4-2-0 Against The Spread (ATS) record in playoff games since 2021, accompanied by the invaluable experience of two Super Bowl victories together. In contrast, the Miami Dolphins, led by a relatively inexperienced postseason roster and first-time head coach Mike McDaniels, along with a warm weather speed team trying to play in the cold temps on the road in KC with -30 wind chills tonight.

Given Mahomes and Reid's successful playoff track record and the Dolphins' struggles as road underdogs, I really like KC a lot to win and cover this one.