This is a 4% TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Nuggets/Lakers.

I think the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams as far as the total is concerned, is that it's going "over."

It would be hard not to think that, as each team has been involved in several higher-scoring games of late.

The Nuggets are now 17-10 after their 141-128 destruction of the Wizards as 11-point favorites on Wednesday night. That was in regulation as well. Denver has seen three of its last four games go OVER the posted number. Denver actually returns home for four more home games after this, starting with Charlotte on Sunday.

The last thing the Lakers will want to do here I think is turn this into a shootout. LA has been playing better over the last month, but it's coming in off a high-scoring 122-118 overtime home loss to Boston on Tuesday. LA has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last ten, including four straight.

Denver though interestingly plays with revenge here, after falling 121-110 to the Lakers back on October 30th. And the reason that's interesting, is because the Nuggets have seen the total go UNDER the number in five of their last six in trying to avenge a straight-up and against-the-spread loss against an opponent.

Perception has driven this line a few points higher than it really should be in my opinion. Expect LA to put up more of a defensive fight here than what the bookmakers are leading us to believe.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP