Lugo gave up four earned runs in his last game and the Royals have a terrible bullpen with an ERA over 6.00. This should be a good recipe for the Orioles to get some runs off of Kansas City and take this total over. The Royals should have some success against Kremer who is sporting an EAR of 8.44 on the road. His last two starts against the Royals saw both games go over the total. Total has gone Over in 13 of their last 17 home meetings against each other and Baltimore has gone over the total in seven of their last nine road games too. Look for plenty of runs to take this game over the total as the Royals give up 3.5 runs on average per game while Baltimore is giving up over 4 runs per game.

Best bet: take the Over the Total (7.5).