ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon +3.5 over USC, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a classic underrated vs overrated spot in our opinion. Entering the season our research told us that Oregon was the best team in the Pac 12. We weren’t the only ones who shared that opinion as many other handicappers we respect felt the same way. Oregon lost 2 games along the way to their current 3-2 record. Both games were tight losses by 4 & 3 points and the Ducks had the ball late in the 4th quarter in each with a chance to win. What would this line be if Oregon had one both of those game which they certainly could have? In their most recent 21-17 loss @ Cal, the Ducks outgained the Bears by nearly 100 yards and had the ball in Cal territory in 3 of their last 4 possessions with a shot to win. Those possessions ended in 2 fumbles and a shut out on downs at the Bear 18 yard line. Speaking of fumbles, that has been a problem for the Ducks as they are -11 on the season, in just 5 games yet the STILL have a winning record. The Trojans are the exact opposite for us. They are very solid, but not as good as their 5-0 record. They’ve had to make 3 fourth quarter comebacks to get to their 5 wins. Last week vs arch rival UCLA, they trailed by 18 points made another late comeback scoring a TD with 16 seconds remaining in the game to win by 5. As long as Oregon doesn’t turn the ball over a bunch, we think USC’s luck runs out here. In fact, of the Ducks can keep this TO margin even, we have no doubt they’ll win this game. For the season the 3-2 Ducks are +47 YPG and +1.6 YPP. USC, vs a very similar schedule with 2 common opponents, is +35 YPG and only +0.1 YPP. Speaking of those common opponents this is where we see the value in this line with Oregon as a dog. They both played UCLA with Oregon favored by 18.5 in that game at home and USC favored by 3 at home. They both played Washington State with Oregon favored by 10.5 on the road and USC favored by 11 at home. Should Oregon actually be favored in this game. We wouldn’t disagree if that was the case. Take Oregon to win the Pac 12 Championship on Friday Night.