#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Charlotte -3 over South Florida, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Love this spot for Charlotte. They’ve had a full week off since losing back to back road games to fall to 11-4 in AAC play (2nd place). On Saturday they host the USF Bulls who are 14-1 in league play and have a full 3 game lead with 3 games to play so they are pretty much assured of winning the AAC regular season title. We feel USF is vastly overvalued because of their record but the fact is, they’ve played the easiest schedule in conference play and they have the 5th best adjusted efficiency margin in the AAC and KenPom has them ranked as the 5th best team in the league as well despite their record. The Bulls just had a huge home game topping SMU which gave them at least a tie for the conference title and they just entered the AP top 25 for the first time EVER. While they do have a 6-3 SU road record, they haven’t been great squeaking by lower tier AAC teams (Temple, Rice, and UTSA – combined 13-33 SU AAC record) all by 6 points or fewer. The 2 solid road wins they have had an asterisk by each @ Memphis winning by 2 (trailed by 20 in the 2nd half) and @ UNT by 5 (who played without one of their top players CJ Noland). They have played only 2 of the top 7 teams in the conference on the road thus far. After basically clinching the AAC title and squeaking into the top 25, we look for a letdown from USF in this game vs a very good Charlotte team that is desperate off 2 losses. Prior to that 2 game losing stretch, the 49ers had won 11 of 12 games. They are still battling 4 other teams (5 teams for 3 spots) to finish in the top 4 and receive a double bye in the AAC tourney. The 49ers are 12-1 SU at home this year and 7-0 in conference play. Going back to the start of last season they are 23-5 SU at home. When these two met 1 month ago @ USF, the 49ers lost by 3 points but dominated the vast majority of the game. Charlotte blew a 17 point lead in that game and USF’s largest lead of the game was 3 points which was the final margin. The Bulls FIRST lead of that game came with 29 seconds remaining! We like Charlotte to get their revenge at home in this one after dominating the first meeting.