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(MLB) NY Mets vs. Miami,
Money Line: -150.00 Miami (Home)
Result: Win
The set-up: Miami Marlins and New York Mets have played 200 games in south Florida with each team winning 100. That tie will be broken in this three-game series at Marlins Park beginning Tuesday night. The Mets are ending a 10-game road trip here in Miami. The trip began by losing four straight in LA against the Dodgers (Mets were outscored 36-11) but up in San Francisco, the Mets swept the struggling Giants in a three-game set, outscoring them 24-8. The Mets have already set a franchise record for most homers in a month with 46 in June but HRs have not translated into wins, as New York is only 11-13 this month, leaving them 34-41 (10 1/2 games back of the Nats). The Marlins have alternated wins and losses over their last eight games and are searching for offense while averaging 2.4 runs over their last five contests. Miami is 34-40, 10 games back of the Nats.

The pitching matchup: Robert Gsellman (5-5 & 6.04 ERA) starts for New York and Dan Straily (5-4 & 3.43 ERA) for Miami. Gsellman has struggled badly in his last two starts, losing both while allowing 14 ERs on 20 hits (including six HRs) in 9 1/3 innings (13.50 ERA).. Gsellman is already facing the Marlins for the fourth time this season and is 1-1 with a 6.14 ERA through the first three (Mets are 2-1). While Gsellman has struggled in his last two, Straily has allowed just one run on seven hits over 12 1/3 innings while striking out 14 and walking one in his last two outings (1-0 with an 0.73 ERA / team is 2-0). He's had 86 strikeouts in 84 total innings this season and over his last five starts, has walked just three batters. Straily threw 5 1/3 no-hit innings against New York on April 16 but walked five and was lifted after 93 pitches. He's 0-1 with a 4.71 ERA in two career starts (teams are 1-1).

The pick: The Mets are coming off a three-game sweep in San Francisco but these days that's filed under "what's the big deal?" The Marlins earned a split of their four-game weekend series with the Cubs with a 4-2 Sunday win but had taken their previous five home series prior to that. That fact plus Strailly over Gsellman make the Marlins an 8* play.