The set-up: The Red Sox got swept at home over the weekend by the Orioles but have rebounded to take the first two of a four-game series in Toronto, Monday and Tuesday. 6-5 and 3-0 wins have ended a four-game slide and allowed Boston to open a four-game lead over the NY Yankees atop the AL East. Toronto's playoff hopes are all but gone now, as the Blue Jays have lost three in a row and nine of 11 to fall 10 games under .500 at 61-71, leaving them 7 1/2 games out of the final wild card spot, as well as having to climb over seven teams.

The pitching matchup: A pair of 20-game winners from 2016 square off in this one, although the phrase "what a difference a year makes," is surely applicable. Rick Porcello (8-15 & 4.57 ERA) starts for Boston and J.A. Happ (6-10 & 4.10 ERA) for Toronto. Porcello led the major leagues in victories with 22 in 2016, while winning the AL's Cy Young award. Boston was 25-8 in all of his starts, giving him MLB's third-best moneyline mark at plus-$1470. However, he takes the mound tonight looking to avoid his major league-worst 16th loss. He owns just eight wins and Boston is 12-15 in his starts, giving him MLB's sixth-worst moneyline mark (minus-$816). Porcello is 7-7 with a 4.70 ERA in 17 career starts against Toronto (teams are 8-9). Happ opened with a three-start winning streak (permitting one run in each) but he has been pounded in his last two outings. In losses to Minnesota and the Chicago Cubs, he's allowed 10 ERs on 17 hits in just 11 innings (8.18 ERA). Happ is 5-3 with a 3.69 ERA in 13 career starts vs. Boston (teams are 8-5).

The pick: Porcello was ripped in his last outing (10 runs on 11 hits, although only four runs were earned) and I just don't trust him. Happ was unbeaten in three starts against Boston last year (he was 2-0 and Toronto 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA) and in one start against them in 2017, allowed two ERs over five innings of a no-decision. Make Toronto a 10* play.