The set-up: Kansas City used an eight-run second inning on its way to a 15-5 win at Toronto. The Royals had failed to score more than four runs in eight straight games and entered last night's game on a three-game slide, before busting loose against the Blue Jays. The victory allowed them to close within 3 1/2 games of the American League's second wild card with 11 games left to play The 71-81 Blue Jays (71-81) would need to win their final 10 games to avoid the team's first losing record since 2013, as the two teams meet in the rubber match of this three-game series tonight at Rogers Centre.

The pitching matchup: Jason Vargas (16-10 & 4.19 ERA) takes the mound for KC and J.A. Happ (9-10 & 3.76 ERA) for Toronto. Vargas has won his last two starts but he went just five innings in each and hasn't come close to resembling the pitcher who was 12-3 on June 30. Vargas is 4-7 since the beginning of July (team is 6-7) and his ERA has almost doubled, from 2.22 on June 30 to 4.19 heading into tonight's contest. Vargas is 3-3 with a 4.96 ERA against the Blue Jays after beating them with seven innings of two-run ball on June 24 over nine career starts (teams are 5-4). Happ began the season by losing his first four decisions and also spent time on the DL. His 20-4 season of 2016 seems 'miles' away but he's won each of his last three starts to move closer to a sixth season with double-digit victories. In one start this season against the Royals (June 23), he allowed four hits, no walks and one run in 6 2/3 innings and did not factor in the decision as Kansas City won 5-4. In five career starts against the Royals, he is 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA (teams are 2-3).

The pick: KC is fighting for a playoff spot while the Blue Jays, after back-to-back ALCS appearances, will be sitting home this October. However, Vargas has struggled for most of the last three months, while Happ, who struggled early in the season with elbow inflammation, has a 2.25 ERA over his last four starts and has won three in a row. Make Toronto a 10* play.