The set-up: The Mariners won the final three games of a four-game set in Texas against the Rangers from Sep. 12-14. However, Seattle has lost all five games since then, while Texas has followed a five-game skid, which began with those three straight home setbacks to Seattle, with three consecutive wins. While the Mariners now sit four games behind the Twins with 10 to play for the AL's final wild card spot, the Rangers have climbed to within 2 1/2 games of Minnesota with 11 contests remaining in their season.

The pitching matchup: Cole Hamels (10-4 & 3.96 ERA) starts for Texas and James Paxton (12-4 & 2.98 ERA) for Seattle. Hamels has posted only one victory over his last five starts (team is 2-3) but did pitch well enough to win this past Saturday, when he allowed two runs on four hits over 7 1/3 innings of a 2-0 road loss to the LA Angels. Hamels improved to 6-3 lifetime against Seattle on Sep, 11, when he gave up three runs and tied a season high with seven strikeouts in six innings (teams are 8-5 in his 13 career starts against the Mariners but he owns a 5.02 ERA!). Paxton returned from a pectoral strain this past Friday but worked only 1 1/3 innings in a 5-2 loss at Houston. He gave up three runs on four hits and two walks as he reached his limit of 50 pitches. It was his first defeat since June 27 against Philadelphia. He hasn't surrendered more than three ERs since June 16 at Texas, a span of 11 starts (Mariners are 8-3). However, Paxton lost that June 16 outing vs. the Rangers, falling to 2-3 with a 4.60 ERA in nine career starts against the Rangers (teams are 4-5) with that setback, although he allowed two hits over eight scoreless innings in a win versus the club back on April 15.

The pick: It's likely neither team will make the postseason but in this one, but Paxton has allowed no more than three ERs in 11 straight starts) and Hamels is Hamels. Make the Under an 8* play.