The set-up: Anthony Rizzo's bloop single in the eighth inning plated the go-ahead run Monday as the Cubs posted a 2-1 victory in Game 3 to regain the series lead. Washington's Max Scherzer was dominant in his return from a right hamstring injury, carrying a no-hitter into the seventh. However, just like in Game 1 when Chicago was held hit-less into the sixth by Stephen Strasburg, the World Series champion Cubs showed off their resilience on the way to a stirring victory. The Nats are on the verge of extending their string of postseason disappointments and the culprit has been a powerful lineup which has been held in check by Chicago's starting pitchers. The Cubs' starting rotation has allowed two runs (just one earned) over 18 2/3 innings during the first three games of this NLDS.

The pitching matchup: Tanner Roark (13-11 & 4.67 ERA) will take the ball for the Nats, with hopes of sending this series back to Washington. Taking the mound for the Cubs will be Jake Arrieta (14-10 & 3.53 ERA), who was pushed back to Game 4 to give him a few extra days to rest his tender hamstring, Roark had a solid second half, allowing three ERs or less in 11 of his 13 starts since the break, although the Nats were a modest 8-5 in those outings. However, he finished the regular season on a sour note, losing his last two starts (6.94 ERA), before giving up two runs in one inning of relief on Oct. 1. Roark is 4-2 with a 4.06 ERA in seven career games (six starts) against the Cubs, although he did beat them 4-2 in his lone start against them in 2017. Before experiencing hamstring issues, Arrieta was having a string second half as well, going 6-1 with a 1.59 ERA over nine starts before injuring his hamstring in a Sep. 4 start at Pittsburgh. He missed 2 1/2 weeks, before making two late-season starts. He'shad about two weeks off since and says he's ready.

The pick: No reason to believe Arrieta is not ready to go (we saw that with Scherzer) and except for the 8th-inning of Game 2, the Washington bats have been helpless against Chicago pitching. Arrieta is 4-2 with a 3.64 ERA in seven starts over the last two postseasons, including a pair of wins in last year's World Series. He has been outstanding at home throughout his tenure with the Cubs, going 30-14 with a 2.31 ERA in 59 outings. If need be, Maddon can rely on Wade Davis, who improved to 6-for-6 in save opportunities in the postseason with Monday's save and has posted a 0.79 ERA in 25 career playoff games. Make the Cubs a 10* play.