PREMIUM
Rogers' 3-Game Saturday SWEEPER PASS
(NCAAF) Troy vs. North Texas,
Point Spread: 7.00 | -105.00 North Texas (Home)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: 7.00 | -105.00 North Texas (Home)
Result: Loss
The set-up: The 10-2 Troy Trojans (7-1 in the Sun Belt) will take on the 9-4 North Texas Mean Green (7-1 in C-USA) in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Trojans enter this game on a six-game winning streak and have a chance to win 11 games for the first time in school history. The Mean Green have won eight of their last 10 games, although one of those two losses came 41-17 to FAU in the C-USA championship game (Dec. 2) and also have a shot at 10 victories for the first time in school history. The Troy Trojans are 3-3 all-time in bowl games, while the North Texas Mean Green are just 2-5 all-time in bowl appearances.
North Texas: QB Mason Fine is completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 3,749 yards with 28 TDs and 13 INTs (his passing yards and TDs are both single-season school records!). Jalen Guyton has 48 catches (9 TDs) and Michael Lawrence has 56 catches (3 TDs). RB Jeffery Wilson had 1,215 rushing yards (6.5 YPC) and 16 TDs before getting hurt (ankle). That means Nic Smith (665 RY / 5.0 YPC) will be the team's featured back. North Texas averages 35.9 PPG (20th) on 467.2 YPG (19th). The Mean Green needs to score, as the team's D allows 33.8 PPG (106th) on 431.2 YPG (97th).
Troy: QB Brandon Silvers is completing 62.9 percent of his passes for 2,985 yards but has thrown only a modest 13 TDs (also just six INTs). WRs Deondre Douglas (48 catches) and Damion Willis (31) have combined for 1,113 receiving yards and five TDs, while Emanuel Thompson (another WR) has 38 receptions. Troy's ground game is averaging a modest 150.4 YPG (85th), as Jordan Chunn leads the way with 774 yards (5.0 YPC) and 10 TDs. The offense comes in scoring 30.0 PPG (50th). The Trojans have relied on their defense all season and come in allowing 17.5 PPG (11th) on 342.1 YPG (27th).
The pick: Troy has never won 11 games in a season and North Texas has never produced a double-digit winning season, so the winner will be in 'virgin' territory. Troy comes in having won 21 of its past 26 games under coach Neal Brown, after he started 3-8 in 2015. Troy owns that great upset win at LSU and the much better defense but North Texas owns an excellent offense, the much better QB and even assuming Wilson doesn't play, a running game that is capable of adding balance. I want the underdog. Make North Texas an 8* play.
North Texas: QB Mason Fine is completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 3,749 yards with 28 TDs and 13 INTs (his passing yards and TDs are both single-season school records!). Jalen Guyton has 48 catches (9 TDs) and Michael Lawrence has 56 catches (3 TDs). RB Jeffery Wilson had 1,215 rushing yards (6.5 YPC) and 16 TDs before getting hurt (ankle). That means Nic Smith (665 RY / 5.0 YPC) will be the team's featured back. North Texas averages 35.9 PPG (20th) on 467.2 YPG (19th). The Mean Green needs to score, as the team's D allows 33.8 PPG (106th) on 431.2 YPG (97th).
Troy: QB Brandon Silvers is completing 62.9 percent of his passes for 2,985 yards but has thrown only a modest 13 TDs (also just six INTs). WRs Deondre Douglas (48 catches) and Damion Willis (31) have combined for 1,113 receiving yards and five TDs, while Emanuel Thompson (another WR) has 38 receptions. Troy's ground game is averaging a modest 150.4 YPG (85th), as Jordan Chunn leads the way with 774 yards (5.0 YPC) and 10 TDs. The offense comes in scoring 30.0 PPG (50th). The Trojans have relied on their defense all season and come in allowing 17.5 PPG (11th) on 342.1 YPG (27th).
The pick: Troy has never won 11 games in a season and North Texas has never produced a double-digit winning season, so the winner will be in 'virgin' territory. Troy comes in having won 21 of its past 26 games under coach Neal Brown, after he started 3-8 in 2015. Troy owns that great upset win at LSU and the much better defense but North Texas owns an excellent offense, the much better QB and even assuming Wilson doesn't play, a running game that is capable of adding balance. I want the underdog. Make North Texas an 8* play.
