Rogers' Saturday SMACKDOWN >> EARLY GAME!
(NCAAF) Texas Tech vs. USF,
Point Spread: -2.50 | -110.00 USF (Home)
Result: Win
The set-up: The Texas Tech Red Raiders finished the regular season by losing five of their last seven games but the team's 27-23 victory at Texas in the team's regular season finale got them a sixth win, earning them a bowl bid at 6-6. Texas Tech is off to the Birmingham Bowl to face South Florida, which followed last year's 11-2 record (which set a school-record for wins in a season) by going 9-2 in 2017. USF ended last season on a five-game winning streak and opened this season with seven straight wins. However, the team's 12-game winning streak ended with a last-second 28-24 loss at home to Houston on Oct 28. That contest also ended the team's run of 24 consecutive games in which the Bulls had scored 30 points or more. Then, with a chance to earn the AAC East title, the Bulls lost 49-42 on "Black Friday" at UCF (brutal loss, look it up!).

Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are hoping to the end the season on a high note here in Birmingham. Tech always seems to have a QB who puts up impressive numbers. Nic Shimonek is the latest, completing 68.2 percent of his passes for 3,547 yards, 30 TDs and just eight INTs. WRs Keke Coutee and Dylan Cantrell have combined for 149 catches and 2,032 receiving yards with 15 TDs while a third WR, Cameron Batson, has 55 receptions. However, the ground game is averaging only a modest 141.6 YPG (96th). Tech averages 34.3 PPG () but also allows 31.8 PPG (95th) on 434.0 YPG (99th).

USF: This contest will be QB Quinton Flowers' last game.He may have completed just 53.4% of his passes this season but he's thrown for 2,600 yards with 21 TDs and six Ints . He's also the team's leading rusher at 972 yards (5.3 YPC and 10 TDs). He teams with RBs Tice (878 YR / 5.4 YPC / 11 TDs) and Johnson (745 YR / 4.2 YPC / 7 TDs), as USF ranks 8th in the nation in rushing yards at 265.4 per game. USF's scoring is slightly down from last year (38.3 PPG from 43.8 in 2016). However, after the Bulls' defense allowed 31.6 PPG in 2016, the 2017 edition has allowed only 22.5 PPG (36th).

The pick: The Texas Tech Red Raiders have won six of their last eight bowl games but haven't won a game since 2013 (lost their most recent bowl game 56-27 to LSU in 2015).. Meanwhile, this is Flowers' "last hurrah." He has the opportunity to end his collegiate career as one of the most prolific offensive players in American Athletic Conference and school history. Flowers already holds or shares many school records, including wins for a starting QB (30), career rushing yards TD passes. Already the school record holder with 11,385 career yards of offense, Flowers needs just 47 more to become the conference all-time leader. Flowers also needs just 44 yards to break Marlon Mack's school record for career rushing yards, one more touchdown pass for sole possession of first with 68, just 312 yards passing to break Matt Grothe's single-season mark of 2,911 and with four scoring strikes would break his own single-season mark of 24 set last season. A repeat trip to the Birmingham Bowl may not have been what USF had in mind going into the season but with losses to Houston and UCF knocking them out of contention for a New Year's Six appearance, the Bulls have had to reset their postseason goals. USF needed OT to beat South Carolina last year at Legion Field but it should be a much bigger of margin of victory this time around. Flowers accounted for 366 yards and five TDs in a thrilling 46-39 OT victory over South Carolina in LY's Birmingham Bowl. Make USF an 8* play.