PREMIUM
3-Game Saturday SWEEPER PASS
(NCAAF) Louisville vs. Mississippi State,
Point Spread: -6.50 | -115.00 Louisville (Away)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: -6.50 | -115.00 Louisville (Away)
Result: Loss
The set-up: Louisville opened the season ranked No. 16 in the AP's preseason poll and were led by 2016's Heisman Trophy winner, QB Lamar Jackson. However, while Jackson actually improved on his 2016 season (more on that, later), Louisville, was only 4-3 following a 45-42 home upset loss to Boston College on Oct. 14. The Cardinals did finish strong though, winning four of their last five, including their last three. Louisville's opponent in the Taxslayer Bowl (Jacksonville, Fl.) is Mississippi State. The Bulldogs (23rd in the CFP rankings) also come in 8-4 but without two major pieces. QB Nick Fitzgerald was KO'd in the Egg Bowl vs. Ole Miss plus head coach Dan Mullen left to take the Florida job, taking several coaches with him. Running backs and special teams coach Greg Knox will serve as the interim coach, before former Penn State offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead takes over the program in 2018. The Cards are 'bowling' for the 8th straight time (4-3 ATS), as are the Bulldogs, who are 5-2 SU in the postseason under former HC Dan Mullen.
Louisville: 2016 Heisman winner Lamar Jackson put up even more spectacular numbers this season. He passed for 3,489 yards and 25 touchdowns against just six interceptions in 2017. He ran for 1,443 yards (6.9 YPC) and 17 TDs. His completion percentage is up, his interceptions are down, and he is as dangerous of a threat as any player in college football. Jackson is blessed with a top-tier trio of WRs in Smith (53 catches / 16.5 YPC / 6 TDs) , Fitzpatrick (45 catches / 15.5 YPC / 9 TDs) and Dawkins (39 catches / 15.5 YPC / 4 TDs). With Jackson leading the way, Louisville ranked 13th in passing YPG (310.6) and 14th in rushing YPG (249.9), while heading into this game averaging 39.0 PPG (11th). The defense has had its issues, allowing 27.1 PPG (70th) on 386.8 YPG (61st).
Mississippi State: Fitzgerald was an excellent dual threat at QB, throwing for 1,782 yards with 15 TDs and 11 INTs plus was MSU's second-leading rusher (984 yards / YPC / 14 TDs). RB Aeris Williams became the Bulldogs' first 1,000-yard rusher (1,019 yards) at running back since Josh Robinson in 2014. Miss. State comes in averaging 32.1 PPG (39th) but with Fitzgerald out and most of its coaching staff gone, the Bulldogs' offense capabilities for this game are in question. The Bulldogs are a very good defensive team, allowing 20.4 PPG (25th) on 302.0 YPG (10th).
The pick: The Bulldogs went 69-46 under Mullen and it's always tough to predict how teams react to a coaching change before a bowl game. However, we know that Miss. St. will miss Fitzgerald. He was within striking distance of becoming the first player in SEC history with multiple seasons of 2,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards. Sure, freshman Keytaon Thompson amassed 316 total yards and two TDs in relief against Ole Miss but much of that production came after the Bulldogs fell into an 18-point hole after three quarters. Mississippi State is 4-0 all-time vs. Louisville but considering the most recent meeting came back in 1976, that record seems meaningless.The Bulldog "D" faced only one accomplished dual-threat QB, Alabama's Bama's Jalen Hurts, and he amassed almost 300 yards. MSU's defense will be facing an even more talented QB in Jackson and one who is likely 'aching' to atone for his poor effort in LY's 29-9 bowl pasting by LSU, when he was only 15 of 27 for 153 yards and rushed for just 33 yards on 27 carries. Louisville averaged 46.0 PPG over its three-game winnings treak to end the regular season and I see no way MSU can 'hang' with the Cards in this one. Make Louisville an 8* play.
Louisville: 2016 Heisman winner Lamar Jackson put up even more spectacular numbers this season. He passed for 3,489 yards and 25 touchdowns against just six interceptions in 2017. He ran for 1,443 yards (6.9 YPC) and 17 TDs. His completion percentage is up, his interceptions are down, and he is as dangerous of a threat as any player in college football. Jackson is blessed with a top-tier trio of WRs in Smith (53 catches / 16.5 YPC / 6 TDs) , Fitzpatrick (45 catches / 15.5 YPC / 9 TDs) and Dawkins (39 catches / 15.5 YPC / 4 TDs). With Jackson leading the way, Louisville ranked 13th in passing YPG (310.6) and 14th in rushing YPG (249.9), while heading into this game averaging 39.0 PPG (11th). The defense has had its issues, allowing 27.1 PPG (70th) on 386.8 YPG (61st).
Mississippi State: Fitzgerald was an excellent dual threat at QB, throwing for 1,782 yards with 15 TDs and 11 INTs plus was MSU's second-leading rusher (984 yards / YPC / 14 TDs). RB Aeris Williams became the Bulldogs' first 1,000-yard rusher (1,019 yards) at running back since Josh Robinson in 2014. Miss. State comes in averaging 32.1 PPG (39th) but with Fitzgerald out and most of its coaching staff gone, the Bulldogs' offense capabilities for this game are in question. The Bulldogs are a very good defensive team, allowing 20.4 PPG (25th) on 302.0 YPG (10th).
The pick: The Bulldogs went 69-46 under Mullen and it's always tough to predict how teams react to a coaching change before a bowl game. However, we know that Miss. St. will miss Fitzgerald. He was within striking distance of becoming the first player in SEC history with multiple seasons of 2,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards. Sure, freshman Keytaon Thompson amassed 316 total yards and two TDs in relief against Ole Miss but much of that production came after the Bulldogs fell into an 18-point hole after three quarters. Mississippi State is 4-0 all-time vs. Louisville but considering the most recent meeting came back in 1976, that record seems meaningless.The Bulldog "D" faced only one accomplished dual-threat QB, Alabama's Bama's Jalen Hurts, and he amassed almost 300 yards. MSU's defense will be facing an even more talented QB in Jackson and one who is likely 'aching' to atone for his poor effort in LY's 29-9 bowl pasting by LSU, when he was only 15 of 27 for 153 yards and rushed for just 33 yards on 27 carries. Louisville averaged 46.0 PPG over its three-game winnings treak to end the regular season and I see no way MSU can 'hang' with the Cards in this one. Make Louisville an 8* play.
