The set-up: No one is surprised that the Pats are once again in the AFC championship game or that they are the AFC's No. 1 seed. After all, this mark the 12th AFC title game in the Belichick/Brady era (seventh at home), including the team's SEVENTH straight appearance in an AFC title game. The Pats are 7-4 SU but just 6-5 ATS in this duos previous 11 appearances, including 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS the six played here in Foxboro. The same thing can't be said for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who when from last (3-13) in the AFC South in 2016 to first (10-6) in 2017 and then has beaten the Bills (10-3) and Steelers (45-42) to advance to the franchise's third-ever AFC title game (previous appearances came in 1996 and 1999). However, Bill Belichick dismissed the idea that the been-there-won-that factor gives his team a huge edge. "I don't think experience has anything to do with that," Belichick, who has guided New England to seven Super Bowls - winning five - since 2001, told reporters. "It is what happens Sunday, not what happened last year, two years ago, five years ago, 15 years ago, 1996 or whatever it is. Those games don't make any difference, with all due respect."

Jacksonville: The Jags played what many people called an "unwatchable" game in edging the Bills 10-3 in the wild card round but are brimming with confidence in the wake of last week's 45-42 win at No. 2 seed Pittsburgh. Jacksonville featured the league's top-ranked rushing attack in the regular season (159.5 YPG on 4.6 YPC) led by rookie Leonard Fournette (1,40 yards and nine rushing TDs), who ran for 109 yards and three TDs last week. QB Blake Bortles was close to being benched in the preseason but with no other real options, the Jags stuck with him. He was nothing special this season but did cut down on his mistakes in leading the team to a 10-4 record but he then rasied concerns by throwing five INTs in the season's final two games. However, while he's completed just 53.1 percent of his passes in the two playoff wins, he has not committed a turnover. The Jaguars' D has been excellent all season, surrendering a league-low 169.9 YPG passing while ranking second in sacks (55) and interceptions (21). Overall, the defense ranked second in total D (286.1 YPG) and scoring D (16.8 PPG).

New England: That Jacksonville D will be tested by Brady, who had another remarkable season (4,577 passing yards with 32 TDs and just eight INTs for a 102.8 QB rating). The Pats led the NFL in total offense (394.2 YPG) and scored the second-most points at 28.6 PPG. Brady owns the most postseason wins (26) in history and added to his playoff legacy last week, passing for more than 300 yards (337) for the 13th time and surpassing Joe Montana with his 10th three-touchdown performance. RB Dion Lewis (896 yards on 5.0 YPC in the regular season) has rushed for at least 60 yards in seven of his last eight games and added a season-high nine catches last week. Four New England players have at least 56 catches with TE Rob Gronkowski toppomh the list with 69 receptions (15.7 YPC) and eight TDs. He has 34 receptions and four TDs over his last four contests. The New England finsihed teh season allowing 18.5 PPG but it allwed 32.0 PPG through its first four games, before allowing only just 14.0 PPG over ist last 12. The Pats then held the Titans to just 14 points and 267 yards last weekend.

The pick: The Patriots are 6-1 in AFC title games at home(5-1 under Belichick/Brady) and have won 10 of their 11 all-time meetings with Jacksonville.However, as everyone knows, the status of Brady's right hand is an unknown factor. He may be just fine but then again...Either way, this Jacksonville defense gives the Jags a "punchers chance," as the three teams that beat the Pats this season were able to rush Brady, force mistakes and prevent the offense from getting in a groove. The Jags are certainly capable of doing just that. Jacksonville led the NFL with seven defensive TDs during the regular season and added another score versus Pittsburgh. The Jags' pass D held opposing QBs to a league-low 56.8 completion percentage and a league-low QB rating of 68.5. I'm taking the big points and making the Jags a 10* play.