The set-up: I base my picks on many different things and this one falls under the category of "great situational play." St. Louis has lost six of its last ten, including a 4-2 setback to Winnipeg last time out. With a two-game road trip upcoming at Anaheim and Vegas, tonight's contest takes on added importance for the defending champs. Dallas does play with "revenge" here, but it's in action at home vs. the Wild on Friday and I think it'll predictably come into this contest with "heavy legs."

The pick: And with two whole nights off after tonight's game before a home contest vs. Carolina, I think Dallas is also in trouble of getting caught "looking ahead." If you don't mind laying chalk, I think the home side offers great value to bounce back on Saturday night.

1* FREE PLAY on the St. Louis Blues.