The set-up: Notre Dame comes in off a four-point road win over Clemson to improve to 15-8 on the year and 6-6 in league play, but I believe it'll take a step back here vs. the defensive-minded Cavaliers. Virginia comes in highly motivated after a seven point loss to Louisville in its last action, falling to 15-7 overall and 7-5 in conference play. Notre Dame averages 76.2 PPG and it allows 68.4. UVA averages 56.8 PPG and it allows only 51.7.

The pick: As good as the Irish have looked of late, note that they're still just 3-4 ATS as an underdog this year and just 1-3 ATS after allowing 60 points or less. And note that UVA has performed well in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 ATS in its last five off a road loss. I believe the hungrier home side's suffocating defensive play is the difference maker in this one. Lay the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Virginia.