The set-up: Mississippi State won the first meeting at home 74-70, but I expect a much tighter and lower-scoring affair this time around. Both teams are hungry for victories. Mississippi State plays its second straight on the road, as the Bulldogs enter off a poor 83-58 setback to Ole Miss. The struggling Razoracks can empathize, as they've lost three in a row, including an 82-61 loss to Tennessee last time out. Both teams are clearly on the bubble as far as the tournament is concerned. Both are struggling offensively as well. From a situational stand point, I definitely think this one sets up as a defensive affair, rather than a run-and-gun shootout.

The pick: Both teams are conceding less than 67 PPG this year. Arkansas averages only 65 PPG and Mississippi State averages 69.7. The numbers also don't match up here as far as I'm concerned. When taking into account all of the above info, I definitely believe this number is much too high.

10* SEC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Mississippi State/Arkansas.