The set-up: The Nuggets have won three of their last four, but after a straight up loss at home to the Warriors as 15 point favorites, clearly they'll be out to atone for that pathetic performance and take out their frustrations on the defensively challenged Hornets. Denver earned the 100-86 win at home over Charlotte earlier in the season, but I'm predicting a much faster-paced, up-tempo style of play today and I expdect this total to fly over as it comes down the stretch.

The pick: Neither teams plays at a fast pace, but I think the value has swung to the higher-number here. Note as well that Denver has seen the total go over in both games that it's played in this year off a double digit loss as a favorite of six points or more (supporting my theory above that the visitors will be out to atone for their truly embarrassing performance vs. Golden State), while Charlotte has seen the total fly over in five of its last seven off a cover where it lost the game SU as an underdog. This number is a little low.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Nuggets/Hornets.