The set-up: This is a matchup of the 8th and 9th seeds in the Sun Belt Tournament and when the smoke does finally clear, I expect this total to stay under the posted number. These teams split a pair of games this year, each winning on its home floor. The Red Wolves won 79-67 in December and then the Cajuns returned the favor with a 77-74 win in February. While both of those games went OVER the number, I do now finally feel that this conference contest will be more of a defensive affair.

The pick: And the numbers/trends support that theory as well, as note that Arkansas State has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten tournament games when the total is set at 150 or higher, while UL Lafayette has seen the total dip under in eight of its last 11 Conference Tournament home games as a favorite in the -2.5 to -5.5 points range. Expect each team to double down defensively now that it's Tournament time and a one and done format.

10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Arkansas State/UL Lafayette.