The set-up: The Astros have a great hitting line-up, but they enter the playoffs injured. The Twins are healthy and they have the superior starter on the hill in this one as well in my opinion. When you add it all up, it makes this a price that I have no issues at all in laying. Houston was a putrid 9-23 on the road this year, while Minnesota was 24-7 at home. Zack Greinke (3-3, 4.03 ERA) gets the call for the Astros and he posted a 5.46 ERA over his final seven regular season starts.

The pick: Kenta Maeda (6-1, 2.70) has been red hot for Minnesota this year and he's been particularly dominant against this Astros line-up. The chips are stacked against Houston here and I think it stumbles out of the gate. Expect the home side to take advantage.

This is an 8* MOUND MISMATCH on the Minnesota Twins.