The set-up: Game 1 went "under," and Game 2 went "over." I think that Game 3 will follow along the same suit as Game 1. The Heat are injured and they're dejected. No team in NBA Final history has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit and the Lakers will want to rub out all hope right here. LA was one of the best defensive clubs in the league in the regular season and with no big men to threaten them down low, look for the Lakers to double down on the perimeter defense today.

The pick: Note that the Heat have seen the total go "under" in seven of their last 11 after a ten points or greater loss in their previous outing. Look for fatigue to be an issue here as well. This number is a little high.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Lakers/Heat.