Illinois State snapped a three-game losing skid its last time out, beating Evansville on the road, 69-61. Now they’ll turn around and host a Missouri State team that just had a four-game win streak ended with a 74-61 loss at Belmont.

I won’t lie and sell you that Illinois State is a “good team,” but the Redbirds’ record could certainly be a lot better. They have four losses by four points or less.

Missouri State being a road favorite here immediately caught my attention. The Bears have had to lay points in only one true road game so far this season. While they won and covered in that spot, it was against Illinois-Chicago, who is a pretty bad team.

If this game comes down to the free throws, and it very well might (considering the tight spread), then Illinois State has a huge edge. The Redbirds are making 79.8% of their FTs (82.1% at home). Missouri State, meanwhile, is a woeful 59.1% from the charity stripe (57.1% on the road).

ISU is a solid 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games. Take the points. 10*