This will be an interesting match-up between two young QBs. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags got a taste of "lose and it is over" last week, and Lawrence did seem a little jittery vs. the Titans. He has been a quick study in his brief history so far, and I think he will step up this week. Etienne and the Jags' running game will be a deciding factor. The Jags, unlike the Chargers, have some balance in their offense, and the Chargers REALLY struggle against the run.
The Chargers have a fine passer in Herbert, but they may be without Williams this week which takes a little of the juice out of their passing game. They don't run much. They could step that up but the Jags are tough vs the run. The Jags defense, including their weak pass D, has improved as the season progressed. I believe it will be status quo for the Chargers pass-first offense. Can the Jags' pass defense handle Herbert and his targets? They've averaged 3 sacks a week and have held passers to a 70 rating last three games, and an 89 rate for the season, just one point above LA's seasonal average.
The Chargers really haven't beaten anyone very impressive to get this far. I am not sold on them as a wild card winner. The Jags have momentum, a little extra rest and have no expectations on them. They will be at home in front of a delirious crowd. Take the Jags to cover. An outright win would not surprise me.