Miami has crept back up into the top six in the Eastern Conference and tonight will head to Dallas to face a team that’s top five out West. While the Heat have won 4 of 5 and 7 of their last 10, the Mavs are slipping; dropping five of six and three straight.

After their latest loss, which came here at home to the Atlanta Hawks by a score of 130-122, you have to figure Dallas is going to look to “buckle down” defensively. “It’s like a shootaround,” head coach Jason Kidd said of his team’s defense (or rather lack of it) in the last game.

But rather than back the home team here, I’m going with the Under.

Miami is #2 in the NBA in scoring defense, giving up just 108.6 points/game. They’ve allowed fewer than 100 points in two of their last three games.

In terms of pace, these are two of the slowest teams in the entire NBA. Dallas is 29th in pace while Miami is 24th. All signs point to this being a low-scoring game. 10*